October 2026 Links

Some Interesting Things I Read This Month

Fake polls are a real problem -- Here is Nate Silver's take on the Wedgewood fake poll debacle and its specific (lack of) effect on his own FLIPR election model. He also discusses other fraudulent polling operations from years past and how he internally rates the reliability of polls.
Running a Prediction Market Giant w/ Head of Susquehanna Predictions Ric Best | Ep 174 -- The Risk Takers Podcast is another niche sports predicting podcast I quite enjoy. This episode was very interesting as it gave insight into running an institutional sports desk at a quant trading firm.
Binance and Polymarket are investigating potential hacks -- Some huge cryptocurrency thefts in the last week of October. The old adage "not you keys, not your crypto" remains true, as does my observation that usability will always be the bottleneck of this technology.
It’s a ‘socialist’ bank — and North Dakota Republicans love it -- This article about the country's only state-owned bank in North Dakota was fascinating. Would love an Odd Lots episode on the topic.
2026 Preseason Ceiling and Floor Team Outcome -- College basketball is upon us! Here Evan Miya (one of my favorite NCAA basketball analytics guys, in addition to Bart Torvik and Ken Pomeroy) explores the floors and ceilings of every Division 1 team through full season simulations.