June 2026 Links
Some Interesting Things I Read This Month
- Is the Vibecession Real—or Is the Survey Broken? — I first heard about the "vibecession" from Derek Thompson. It describes the phenomenon where public perception of the economy does not align with the "hard" economic data. It turns out this disconnect may be overstated because the University of Michigan's survey, which is used to produce the Index of Consumer Sentiment, appears to have methodological issues. In particular, the transition to an online survey format seems to bias responses toward negativity, and certain groups that are more likely to respond negatively are now overrepresented. The bottom line is that while consumer sentiment is not especially high at the moment, it is probably not as catastrophically low as much of the current discourse suggests.
- America’s Last Bookie Goes Down — I really enjoy long-form journalism from The New Yorker, and this story immediately caught my attention because of its sports betting subject matter. While it is an engaging read, it does not (unsurprisingly) delve into the mechanics of "pay-per-head" (PPH) bookies, the model under which the subject of the story—and almost all modern, unregulated bookmakers—operate. PPH bookies use an offshore provider that centralizes operations. The provider creates betting lines and hosts the betting website, while the individual bookmaker manages customer relationships and financial transactions, often extending credit directly to clients. The bookmaker then pays the provider a fee for each customer, hence the name "pay per head." As far as I am aware, there is very little detailed public information on how these services function behind the scenes, and I would be fascinated to learn more about this obscure corner of the sports betting ecosystem.
- James Holzhauer: How Sportsbooks Really Make Their Lines (and Early Tips on Where to Beat Them) — Although this article is a few years old and does not contain much that would be new to an experienced advantage bettor, it remains a worthwhile read. James Holzhauer does an excellent job explaining the general process by which sportsbooks originate and shape their betting lines.
- Lessons from the Desk: Building a Quantitative Research Operation — A fascinating article about managing quantitative research teams across a variety of buy-side firms. If you're interested in quantitative finance, systematic investing, or how successful research organizations are built and managed, I highly recommend giving it a read.